Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events

one-of-a-kind introduction to the theory and application of modeling and simulation techniques in the realm of international studies Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events provides an orientation to the theory and application of modeling and simulation techniques in social science disciplines. This book guides readers in developing quantitative and numeric representations of real-world events based on qualitative analysis. With an emphasis on gathering and mapping empirical data, the authors detail the steps needed for accurately analyzing global events and outline the selection and construction of the best model for understanding the event¿s data. Providing a theoretical foundation while also illustrating modern examples, the book contains three parts: Advancing Global Studies—introduces the what, when, and why of modeling and simulation and also explores its brief history, various uses, and some of the advantages and disadvantages of modeling and simulation in problem solving. In addition, the differences in qualitative and quantitative research methods, mapping data, and conducting model validation are also discussed. Modeling Paradigms—examines various methods of modeling including system dynamics, agent-based modeling, social network modeling, and game theory. This section also explores the theory and construction of these modeling paradigms, the fundamentals for their application, and various contexts for their use. Modeling Global Events—applies the modeling paradigms to four real-world events that are representative of several fundamental areas of social science studies: internal commotion within an anarchic state, a multi-layered study of the Solidarity movement in Poland, uni-lateral military intervention, and the issue of compellence and deterrence during a national security crisis. Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events is an excellent book for statistics, engineering, computer science, economics, and social sciences courses on modeling and simulation at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an insightful reference for professionals who would like to develop modeling and simulation skills for analyzing and communicating human behavior observed in real-world events and complex global case studies.

Preface xi I PRINCIPLES OF MODELING AND SIMULATION: ADVANCING GLOBAL STUDIES 1 1 Modeling and Simulation: What, When, and Why 3 Introduction 3 An Overview of Modeling and Simulation 4 A Brief History of Modeling and Simulation 8 Why Use Modeling and Simulation 16 Conclusions 20 Key Terms 21 References 21 Further Reading 22 2 Research Methodologies for Modeling Global Events 23 Introduction 23 Global Events and the Social Sciences 25 Qualitative and Quantitative Research 28 Modeling and Simulation of Global Events 32 Mapping Data: A Suggested Methodology 36 Model Validation 39 Conclusions 40 Key Terms 41 References 41 II MODELING PARADIGMS 43 3 System Dynamics 45 Introduction 45 Dynamic System Behavior 46 Building Blocks of System Dynamics Models 51 Conclusions 61 Key Terms 61 References 61 4 Agent-Based Modeling and Social Networks 63 Introduction 63 Agent-Based Models: Description and Definition 64 Social Networks 76 Building an Agent-Based Model 77 Conclusions 78 Key Terms 78 References 79 5 Game Theory 81 Introduction 81 Fundamentals of Game Theory 81 Types of Games 86 Conclusions 95 Key Terms 95 References 96 III MODELING GLOBAL EVENTS 97 6 Case Study: Colombia—A Country Study of Insurgency 99 Introduction 99 Developing the Research Question and Methodology 101 Background: Qualitative Research 102 Mapping Qualitative to Quantitative 108 System Dynamics 115 Responding to the Research Question 117 Key Terms 120 References 120 Case Study Bibliography 120 7 Case Study: The Polish Solidarity Movement—Laying the Foundation for the Collapse of Soviet Communism 123 Introduction 123 Developing the Research Question and Methodology 125 Background: Qualitative Research 126 Measuring Agents and Environments: Stimuli and Actions 144 Modeling Human Behavior with Agents 147 Responding to the Research Question 150 Conclusions 151 Key Terms 152 References 152 Case Study Bibliography 153 8 Case Study: Vietnam—Johnson's War, 1963–1965 155 Introduction 155 Developing the Research Question and Methodology 157 Background: Qualitative Research 158 Analyzing the Social Network Structures 165 Social Network Aspects of Human Behavior Modeling 169 Agent-Based Model Development 169 Responding to the Research Question 172 Key Terms 173 References 174 Case Study Bibliography 174 9 Case Study: Cuban Missile Crisis—A National Security Emergency 177 Introduction 177 Developing the Research Question and Methodology 179 Background: Qualitative Research 180 Evaluating Behaviors 188 Game Theory 192 Responding to the Research Question 197 Key Terms 199 References 199 Case Study Bibliography 200 Index 203