Dealing with the Russians

How to handle Russia? This question has become ever more prominent as the Euro-Atlantic community’s relations with Russia languish in systemic crisis, with dialogue suspended, reciprocal sanctions in place and proxy wars raging. The wars in Ukraine and Syria, accusations of Russian interference in domestic politics and the attempted murder of the Skripals on UK soil have all contributed to soaring tension in the relationship. Yet faced with this array of serious challenges, Euro-Atlantic thinking about Russia remains stuck in twentieth-century rhetoric, trapped by misleading abstract labels and unsure whether to engage Moscow in dialogue or enhance deterrence and collective defence. Instead of thinking in these terms, leading Russia expert Andrew Monaghan argues that we must devise a new grand strategy for dealing with the Russians. Examining the ongoing Euro-Atlantic debate over Russia and framing Moscow’s own position towards the West, he sets out the foundations of a forward-looking strategy; one that can accommodate the many complex challenges presented by this new era of competition between Russia, Europe and the United States.

Preface and Acknowledgements The ‘Decline of the West’ – and the Emergence of a Russian Challenge Acknowledgements Notes 1: The Predicament Russia's Emergence as a Peer Challenger The Dual Dilemma The Book's Argument Notes 2: (Mis)interpreting the Russian Threat Returning to Cold War Relations? The Abstraction of the Russian Threat Recalibrating the Russian Threat and the Need to Refresh Thinking Notes 3: From Dialogue to Deterrence ‘Not Back to Business as Usual’ The Shift to Deterrence Deterrence or Reassurance? What is Deterrence? The Challenges of Dialogue and Deterrence Notes 4: Dealing with the Russians: Pillars of a Twenty-First-Century Strategy From the ‘New Cold War’ Trap to Strategy-Making in a Post-Iraq War World The Need for Grand Strategy for the New Era Towards a Strategy? The Fifth Pillar: Challenging Groupthink The Sixth Pillar: Russia in the Wider and Longer-Term Context Notes Index