Frontier

Get ahead of emerging markets with top-performer picks for up-and-comers Frontier helps investors successfully navigate markets that are yet to “emerge,” with expert advice on spotting opportunities and minimising risks. With first-hand insights into frontier markets as we travel with big-name fund managers from Mark Mobius to Morgan Stanley, this practical guide ranks countries, stocks and bonds on a five- to ten-year horizon to steer investors toward the most promising destinations. Written in a compelling and accessible travelogue narrative, each chapter covers a specific country, providing invaluable market analysis and a deep understanding of the political, economic, and social background of those most likely to outperform. The key focus is on fresh ideas, based on the assessments from top performing money managers when meeting challenges, hostilities or adversity, and observations after interviewing high-level government officials and executives. With advanced economies shackled by debt and sluggish growth, investors are increasingly turning to emerging markets for better returns. Yet the money managers who came out on top in China, India, and Brazil are now focusing their attention on markets that have not yet emerged. This book applies the perspective of ten of the most successful fund managers in their field, providing an unparalleled guide to assessing investment potential in places better known for conflict, poverty and corruption. · Discover which markets have the best prospects, and which are potential disasters · Analyse individual markets by metrics including macro data, global relative value comparisons of stocks and bonds, buy/ sell triggers, and more · Learn which industries, stocks and bonds should be considered in each market · Examine each country through real-life on-the-ground assessment of corruption, conflict and other risks as well as inspirational breakthroughs that signal opportunities This is a practical manual for all investors - whether students or professionals - wanting to get to know the most promising new markets while avoiding the pitfalls. A must-read for corporate executives seeking global capital, Frontier provides a better understanding of the changing international investment dynamic.   Robin Wigglesworth, FT: “Invaluable.”  Mark Mobius, Templeton: “I love it! Beautiful descriptive writing.”  Aliko Dangote, Wealthiest African: “Captivating tales, masterly woven.”

About the Author xi Disclaimer xiii Prologue xv Introduction to Frontier by Mark Mobius 1 CHAPTER 1 Kenya 11 I Mamboz 12 II Can’t Believe You’re Going to Kenya 17 III Sleeping Serpent 19 IV Prowling Leopard 29 V Clinker 39 CHAPTER 2 Myanmar 45 I Halcyon Days 46 II Uncle 50 III Yoma 55 IV Son 61 V Gaung Baung 66 VI Monk of Mandalay 73 CHAPTER 3 Romania 79 I Ro-man-ee-a! 80 II Systematization 85 III Brown Envelopes 90 IV Mega Mall 94 V Drac-ul-a 99 VI Crossroads 106 CHAPTER 4 Argentina 111 I Arbolitos 112 II Del Fin Del Mundo 118 III Vaca Muerta 126 IV Adelante 133 CHAPTER 5 Vietnam 137 I Confucius 138 II Aristotle 144 III Panacea 152 IV Equitization 159 V Automata 164 VI From Noodles 167 CHAPTER 6 Nigeria 169 I Eko Beach 170 II Crude Politics 178 II Sugar King 192 CHAPTER 7 Egypt 199 I Revolution II 200 II Cleopatra 204 III Sahl Hasheesh 211 IV Audacity of Hope 214 V Zahma! 223 CHAPTER 8 Saudi Arabia 229 I Virtue and Vice 230 II Socialist Monarchy 239 III Desert Farming 244 IV Opening Bell 248 V White Balloons 252 CHAPTER 9 Sri Lanka 255 I Family Economy 256 II China City 262 III Pawn 267 IV Kilinochchi 274 V Rising Sun 287 CHAPTER 10 Ghana 291 I Goatanomics 292 II Highlife and Death 299 III Gold Diggers 304 IV Cassava King 310 V Egg and Stone 312 Conclusion – Journey’s End 317 Acknowledgments 385 Index 389