Invest Like a Fox... Not Like a Hedgehog

Proven techniques for leading-instead of following-fast-changing markets Investors, no matter what strategy they are using, can be placed into two categories. Single-minded, inflexible hedgehogs lock into one strategy and stick with it through thick and thin. Dynamic, adaptable foxes, on the other hand, are alert for changes, learn from experience, embrace new ideas, and make the most of new trends and technologies. The key lies in being flexible and realizing that markets are dynamic. Invest Like a Fox . . . Not Like a Hedgehog shows investors how being a hedgehog can reduce returns while increasing the risk of a portfolio, and how acquiring the cunning and adaptability of the fox will improve returns while reducing risk. It reveals the shortcomings of popular but hedgehog-like investment strategies and shows how a fox-like investor adjusts to new market realities. Readers learn how to use the renowned Bayesian Theory of Probability and other guideposts from outside the world of finance to adjust their strategies and react to new information.

Foreword ix Preface xiii Acknowledgments xxi About the Author xxiii Chapter 1 Foxes vs. Hedgehogs 1 Chapter 2 Classic Hedgehog Investment Strategies 25 Chapter 3 The Modern Hedgehog Theory 45 Chapter 4 How Foxes Look at Markets 85 Chapter 5 The Valuation Cycle in Action 111 Chapter 6 Foxes and Reverend Bayes: Rational Investing in Irrational Markets 133 Chapter 7 Advice for Foxes and Hedgehogs: Key Investment Mistakes to Avoid 177 Chapter 8 Portfolios of the Future 195 Index 227