Synthesis and Modeling of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Carbon Storage in Agricultural and Forest Systems to Guide Mitigation and Adaptation

Crop, livestock, and forestry productions systems are important sources and sinks of greenhouses gases, but estimates of the magnitude of gas fluxes are more uncertain than those for other economic sectors such as transportation and electricity generation. Recent improvements in process-level un-derstanding, modeling software, and observational data used for model testing have increased the accuracy of model predictions, but substantial uncertainty remains, particularly regarding the potential for different management practices to mitigate emissions. The chapters in this volume demonstrate that both simple methods and complex models have strengths and limitations depending on stake-holder interest, scale of application, and other factors. Future improvement can be facilitated by or-ganizing model input and testing data into web-accessible databases and by making model algorithms more available and transparent.

Foreword vii Preface ix Contributors xi Nitrous Oxide Emission from Uplands in Northern China Shuping Qin, Chunsheng Hu, Lajpat R. Ahuja, Yuming Zhang, and Yuying Wang 1 Comparison of DayCent and DNDC Models: Case Studies Using Data from Long-Term Experiments on the Canadian Prairies Brian B. Grant, Ward N. Smith, Con A. Campbell, Raymond L. Desjardins, Reynald L. Lemke, Roland Kröbel, Brian G. McConkey, Elwin G. Smith, and Guy P. Lafond 21 CQESTR Simulation of Dryland Agroecosystem Soil Organic Carbon Changes under Climate Change Scenarios Hero Gollany 59 Simulating Soil Organic Carbon Stock Changes in Agroecosystems using CQESTR, DayCent, and IPCC Tier 1 Methods Steve J. Del Grosso, Hero T. Gollany, and Melissa Reyes-Fox 89 Measuring and Modeling Carbon Stock Change Estimates for US Forests and Uncertainties from Apparent Inter-annual Variability James E. Smith and Linda S. Heath 111 Developing National Baseline GHG Emissions and Analyzing Mitigation Potentials for Agriculture and Forestry Using an Advanced National GHG Inventory Software System Stephen M. Ogle, Shannon Spencer, Melannie Hartman, Leandro Buendia, Luanne Stevens, Linde du Toit, and Jongikhaya Witi 129 Parameter-Induced Uncertainty Quantification of Regional N2O Emissions and NO3 Leaching using the Biogeochemical Model LandscapeDNDC Steffen Klatt, David Kraus, Karl-Heinz Rahn, Christian Werner, Ralf Kiese, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, and Edwin Haas 149 Modeling Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Enteric Fermentation Ermias Kebreab, Luis Tedeschi, Jan Dijkstra, Jennifer L. Ellis, Andre Bannink, and James France 173 Mathematical Modeling of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture for Different End Users Jon Hillier, Mohammed Abdalla, Jessica Bellarby, Fabrizio Albanito, Arindam Datta, Marta Dondini, Nuala Fitton, Paul Hallett, Astley Hastings, Edward Jones, Matthias Kuhnert, Dali Nayak, Mark Pogson, Mark Richards, Jo Smith, Sylvia Vetter, Jagadeesh Yeluripati, and Pete Smith 197 Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agricultural and Forest Landscapes for Policy Development and Verification Christina Tonitto, Noel P. Gurwick, and Peter B. Woodbury 229 Modeling GHG Emissions and Carbon Changes in Agricultural and Forest Systems to Guide Mitigation and Adaptation: Synthesis and Future Needs Stephen J. Del Grosso, Lajpat R. Ahuja, and William J. Parton 305