Understanding Sea-level Rise and Variability

Understanding Sea-Level Rise and Variability identifies the major impacts of sea-level rise, presents up-to-date assessments of past sea-level change, thoroughly explores all of the factors contributing to sea-level rise, and explores how sea-level extreme events might change. It identifies what is known in each area and what research and observations are required to reduce the uncertainties in our understanding of sea-level rise so that more reliable future projections can be made. A synthesis of findings provides a concise summary of past, present and future sea-level rise and its impacts on society. Key Features: Book includes contributions from a range of international sea level experts Multidisciplinary Four color throughout Describes the limits of our understanding of this crucial issue as well as pointing to directions for future research The book is for everyone interested in sea-level rise and its impacts, including policy makers, research funders, scientists, students, coastal managers and engineers. Additional resources for this book can be found at: http://www.wiley.com/go/church/sealevel.

Editor Biographies x List of Contributors xi Foreword xvii Acknowledgments xix Abbreviations and Acronyms xxii 1 Introduction 1 Philip L. Woodworth, John A. Church, Thorkild Aarup, and W. Stanley Wilson References 15 2 Impacts of and Responses to Sea-Level Rise 17 Robert J. Nicholls 2.1 Introduction 17 2.2 Climate Change and Global/Relative Sea-Level Rise 18 2.3 Sea-Level Rise and Resulting Impacts 22 2.4 Framework and Methods for the Analysis of Sea-Level-Rise Impacts 25 2.5 Recent Impacts of Sea-Level Rise 27 2.6 Future Impacts of Sea-Level Rise 30 2.7 Responding to Sea-Level Rise 37 2.8 Next Steps 40 2.9 Concluding Remarks 41 Acknowledgments 43 References 43 3 A First-Order Assessment of the Impact of Long-Term Trends in Extreme Sea Levels on Offshore Structures and Coastal Refineries 52 Ralph Rayner and Bev MacKenzie 3.1 Introduction 52 3.2 Design Considerations 54 3.3 Impact of Long-Term Trends in Extreme Sea Levels 55 3.4 Evaluating the Economic Impact 57 3.5 Conclusions 58 References 59 4 Paleoenvironmental Records, Geophysical Modeling, and Reconstruction of Sea-Level Trends and Variability on Centennial and Longer Timescales 61 Kurt Lambeck, Colin D. Woodroffe, Fabrizio Antonioli, Marco Anzidei, W. Roland Gehrels, Jacques Laborel, and Alex J. Wright 4.1 Introduction 61 4.2 Past Sea-Level Changes 62 4.3 Sea-Level Indicators 73 4.4 Geophysical Modeling of Variability in Relative Sea-Level History 84 4.5 Regional Case Studies 88 4.6 Discussion and Conclusions 95 Acknowledgments 105 References 105 5 Modern Sea-Level-Change Estimates 122 Gary T. Mitchum, R. Steven Nerem, Mark A. Merrifield, and W. Roland Gehrels 5.1 Introduction 122 5.2 Estimates from Proxy Sea-Level Records 123 5.3 Estimates of Global Sea-Level Change from Tide Gauges 126 5.4 Estimates of Global Sea-Level Change from Satellite Altimetry 133 5.5 Recommendations 137 Acknowledgments 138 References 138 6 Ocean Temperature and Salinity Contributions to Global and Regional Sea-Level Change 143 John A. Church, Dean Roemmich, Catia M. Domingues, Josh K. Willis, Neil J. White, John E. Gilson, Detlef Stammer, Armin Köhl, Don P. Chambers, Felix W. Landerer, Jochem Marotzke, Jonathan M. Gregory, Tatsuo Suzuki, Anny Cazenave, and Pierre-Yves Le Traon 6.1 Introduction 143 6.2 Direct Estimates of Steric Sea-Level Rise 145 6.3 Estimating Steric Sea-Level Change Using Ocean Syntheses 152 6.4 Inferring Steric Sea Level from Time-Variable Gravity and Sea Level 154 6.5 Modeling Steric Sea-Level Rise 156 6.6 Conclusions and Recommendations 166 Acknowledgments 168 References 168 7 Cryospheric Contributions to Sea-Level Rise and Variability 177 Konrad Steffen, Robert H. Thomas, Eric Rignot, J. Graham Cogley, Mark B. Dyurgerov, Sarah C.B. Raper, Philippe Huybrechts, and Edward Hanna 7.1 Introduction 177 7.2 Mass-Balance Techniques 178 7.3 Ice-Sheet Mass Balance 180 7.4 Mass Balance of Glaciers and Ice Caps 192 7.5 Glacier, Ice-Cap, and Ice-Sheet Modeling 200 7.6 Summary and Recommendations 210 References 214 8 Terrestrial Water-Storage Contributions to Sea-Level Rise and Variability 226 P.C.D. (Chris) Milly, Anny Cazenave, James S. Famiglietti, Vivien Gornitz, Katia Laval, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Dork L. Sahagian, John M. Wahr, and Clark R. Wilson 8.1 Introduction 226 8.2 Analysis Tools 229 8.3 Climate-Driven Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage 236 8.4 Direct Anthropogenic Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage 241 8.5 Synthesis 246 8.6 Recommendations 248 References 249 9 Geodetic Observations and Global Reference Frame Contributions to Understanding Sea-Level Rise and Variability 256 Geoff Blewitt, Zuheir Altamimi, James Davis, Richard Gross, Chung-Yen Kuo, Frank G. Lemoine, Angelyn W. Moore, Ruth E. Neilan, Hans-Peter Plag, Markus Rothacher, C.K. Shum, Michael G. Sideris, Tilo Schöne, Paul Tregoning, and Susanna Zerbini 9.1 Introduction 256 9.2 Global and Regional Reference Systems 263 9.3 Linking GPS to Tide Gauges and Tide-Gauge Benchmarks 274 9.4 Recommendations for Geodetic Observations 279 Acknowledgments 281 References 281 10 Surface Mass Loading on a Dynamic Earth: Complexity and Contamination in the Geodetic Analysis of Global Sea-Level Trends 285 Jerry X. Mitrovica, Mark E. Tamisiea, Erik R. Ivins, L.L.A. (Bert) Vermeersen, Glenn A. Milne, and Kurt Lambeck 10.1 Introduction 285 10.2 Glacial Isostatic Adjustment 290 10.3 Sea Level, Sea Surface, and the Geoid 300 10.4 Rapid Melting and Sea-Level Fingerprints 302 10.5 Great Earthquakes 308 10.6 Final Remarks 311 Acknowledgments 313 References 313 11 Past and Future Changes in Extreme Sea Levels and Waves 326 Jason A. Lowe, Philip L. Woodworth, Tom Knutson, Ruth E. McDonald, Kathleen L. McInnes, Katja Woth, Hans von Storch, Judith Wolf, Val Swail, Natacha B. Bernier, Sergey Gulev, Kevin J. Horsburgh, Alakkat S. Unnikrishnan, John R. Hunter, and Ralf Weisse 11.1 Introduction 326 11.2 Evidence for Changes in Extreme Sea Levels and Waves in the Recent Past 327 11.3 Mid-Latitude and Tropical Storms: Changes in the Atmospheric Drivers of Extreme Sea Level 337 11.4 Future Extreme Water Levels 346 11.5 Future Research Needs 357 11.6 Conclusions 361 Acknowledgments 361 References 361 12 Observing Systems Needed to Address Sea-Level Rise and Variability 376 W. Stanley Wilson, Waleed Abdalati, Douglas Alsdorf, Jérôme Benveniste, Hans Bonekamp, J. Graham Cogley, Mark R. Drinkwater, Lee-Lueng Fu, Richard Gross, Bruce J. Haines, D.E. Harrison, Gregory C. Johnson, Michael Johnson, John L. LaBrecque, Eric J. Lindstrom, Mark A. Merrifi eld, Laury Miller, Erricos C. Pavlis, Stephen Piotrowicz, Dean Roemmich, Detlef Stammer, Robert H. Thomas, Eric Thouvenot, and Philip L. Woodworth 12.1 Introduction 376 12.2 Sustained, Systematic Observing Systems (Existing Capabilities) 377 12.3 Development of Improved Observing Systems (New Capabilities) 390 12.4 Summary 398 References 400 13 Sea-Level Rise and Variability: Synthesis and Outlook for the Future 402 John A. Church, Thorkild Aarup, Philip L. Woodworth, W. Stanley Wilson, Robert J. Nicholls, Ralph Rayner, Kurt Lambeck, Gary T. Mitchum, Konrad Steffen, Anny Cazenave, Geoff Blewitt, Jerry X. Mitrovica, and Jason A. Lowe 13.1 Historical Sea-Level Change 403 13.2 Why is Sea Level Rising? 405 13.3 The Regional Distribution of Sea-Level Rise 408 13.4 Projections of Sea-Level Rise for the 21st Century and Beyond 409 13.5 Changes in Extreme Events 412 13.6 Sea Level and Society 412 References 416 Index 421