The Black Swan Problem

An incisive framework for companies seeking to increase their resilience In The Black Swan Problem: Risk Management Strategies for a World of Wild Uncertainty, renowned risk and finance expert Håkan Jankensgård delivers an extraordinary and startling discussion of how firms should navigate a world of uncertainty and unexpected events. It examines three fundamental, high-level strategies for creating resilience in the face of “black swan” risks, highly unlikely but devastating events: insurance, buffering, and flexibility: The author also presents: Detailed case studies, stories, and examples of major firms that failed to anticipate Black Swan Problems and, as a result, were either wiped out or experienced a major strategy disruption Extending the usual academic focus on individual biases to analyze Swans from an organizational perspective and prime organizations to proactive rather than reactive action Practical applications and tactics to mitigate Black Swan risks and protect corporate strategies against catastrophic losses and the collateral damage that they cause Strategies and tools for turning Black Swan events into opportunities, reflecting the fact that resilience can be used for strategic advantage An expert blueprint for companies seeking to anticipate, mitigate, and process tail risks, The Black Swan Problem is a must-read for students and practitioners of risk management, executives, founders, managers, and other business leaders.

Prologue 3 Chapter 1: The Swans Revisited 7 The nature of randomness 8 The Moving Tail 11 The role of expectations 16 What makes us suckers? 20 The relativity of Black Swans 24 Meet the preppers 28 Chapter 2: Corporate Swans 31 The Board’s perspective 31 Swans attack 33 Strategy Swans 35 The Swan within 39 The growth fetish 42 The fear factor 47 The Chief Executive Swan 49 Swans on the rise 52 Chapter 3: The Black Swan Problem 60 Tail risk and firm value 60 Understanding wipeouts 65 Strategy disruption 71 All you zombies 76 The affordability issue 78 The conundrum 84 Chapter 4: Greeting the Swan 90 Randomness redux 90 The roads not taken 98 Functional stupidity 102 The Swanmakers 108 On tools and models 112 A Swan radar for the Board 116 Chapter 5: Taming the Swan 122 Drawing the line 122 Distance to wipeout 129 Risk capital 131 Stress testing 140 The exit option 146 Resilience vs endurance 150 Quantitative models 155 Liquidity is king 162 Chapter 6: Catching the Swan 166 Antifragility 167 Restoring the true path 170 Buying on the cheap 173 Opportunity capital 176 Flight to safety 182 Risk as strategy 187 Chapter 7: Riding the Swan 192 Risk shifting 192 A beautiful strategy 199 Fuel for growth 203 Narcissism redeemed 208 A tail of two companies 211 End of the ride 215 Swans to the rescue? 217 Epilogue 221