The Scramble for Europe

From the harrowing situation of migrants trying to cross the Mediterranean in rubber dinghies to the crisis on the US-Mexico border, mass migration is one of the most urgent issues facing our societies today. At the same time, viable solutions seem ever more remote, with the increasing polarization of public attitudes and political positions. In this book, Stephen Smith focuses on ‘young Africa’ – 40 per cent of its population are under fifteen – anda dramatic demographic shift. Today, 510 million people live inside EU borders, and 1.25 billion people in Africa. In 2050, 450 million Europeans will face 2.5 billion Africans – five times their number. The demographics are implacable. The scramble for Europe will become as inexorable as the ‘scramble for Africa’ was at the end of the nineteenth century, when 275 million people lived north and only 100 million lived south of the Mediterranean. Then it was all about raw materials and national pride, now it is about young Africans seeking a better life on the Old Continent, the island of prosperity within their reach. If Africa’s migratory patterns follow the historic precedents set by other less developed parts of the world, in thirty years a quarter of Europe’s population will beAfro-Europeans. Addressingthe question of how Europe cancope with an influx of this magnitude, Smith argues for a path between the two extremes of today’s debate. He advocatesmigratory policies of ‘good neighbourhood’ equidistant from guilt-ridden self-denial and nativist egoism. This sobering analysis of the migration challenges we now face will be essential reading for anyone concerned with the great social and political questions of our time.

Acknowledgements Introduction: A View from the Top of the Population Pyramid Africa: The Mexico of Europe A 'stress test' between generations Africa Has Not Yet Taken Off The Kingdom of Lies Chapter One: The Law of Large Numbers Africa: The World's Youth Nigeria: Take it or Leave It Lagos: Half Paradise, Half Slum The Chinese Model Demographic Governance Chapter Two: The Island-Continent of Peter Pan Empty Granaries, Coveted Land The 'Birth' of Youth Suicides in a blue frock coat Brothers and Sisters in Faith Democracy, a Barmecide feast Chapter Three - Emerging Africa Trade secrets The 'gatekeeper state' 'A Billion Good Reasons' Identity as a repertoire Musa Wo, the legendary 'enfant terrible' Chapter Four: A Cascade of Departures The dilemma of development aid The Draining of Lake Chad To Live the 'White Man's Life' The repertoire of rejection Zooming in on the Mare nostrum Chapter Five: Europe as Destination and Destiny Don't reckon without your host Plugging a Leaky Dike with Sandbags of Euros 'Bowling Alone' Smashing the actuarial tables Beware of 'transfers' 'A Rancour Sharpened by the Winter' By Way of Conclusion: Some Plausible Scenarios for the Future The Obsession with 'Scenes and Types' Go See the Other Side! Notes Bibliography