Forecasting with Judgment

This book provides research on the human element in forecasting. It focuses on how we can improve our ability to accurately forecast.

Judgment: Its Role and Value for Strategy (S. Makridakis & A. Gaba). Scenario Planning: Scaffolding Disorganized Ideas about the Future (K. van der Heijden). Judgmental Forecasting and the Use of Available Information (M. O'Connor & M. Lawrence). Enhancing Judgmental Sales Forecasting: The Role of Laboratory Research (P. Goodwin). Heuristics and Biases in Judgmental Forecasting (F. Bolger & N. Harvey). Financial Forecasting with Judgment (D. Önkal-Atay). Reasoning with Category Knowledge in Probability Forecasting: Typicality and Perceived Variability Effects (G. Browne & S. Curley). The Use of Structured Groups to Improve Judgmental Forecasting (G. Rowe). How Bad Is Human Judgment? (P. Ayton). Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series Forecasting: Principles from Empirical Research (J. Armstrong & F. Collopy). Index.