20% Chance of Rain

There are plenty of books on specialized risk topics but few that deal with the broad diversity and daily applicability of this subject. Risk applications require a robust knowledge of many attributes of this seemingly simple subject. This book teaches the reader through examples and case studies the fundamental (and subtle) aspects of risk - regardless of the specific situation. The text allows the reader to understand the concept of risk analysis while not getting too involved in the mathematics; in this method the reader can apply these techniques across a wide range of situations. The second edition includes new examples from NASA and several other industries as well as new case studies from legal databases. The many real-life discussion topics enable the reader to form an understanding of the concepts of risk and risk management and apply them to day-to-day issues.

Preface ix Acknowledgments xi 1. Risk: Life’s Question Mark 1 2. Measurement: The Alchemist’s Base 15 3. Statistics: Numbers Looking for an Argument 41 4. The Value of Life and Limb, Statistically Speaking 69 5. The Evolution of Risk 93 6. Frequency and Severity: Weighing the Risk 107 7. What’s in a Risk? Perception Creates Risk Reality 128 8. Risk, Regulation, and Reason 151 9. Earth, Air, and Water: The Not-So-Bare Essentials 176 10. Food . . . for Thought 210 11. Flying: The Not-So-Wild Blue Yonder 249 12. Risk on the Roads 278 13. An Incomplete List of Life’s Risks 315 Index 337