Planning, Intelligence, and the Art of War

A practical framework for aligning intelligence analysis with operational military planning and forecasting Planning, Intelligence, and the Art of War equips military planners and intelligence professionals with a clear methodology for synchronizing intelligence support with the demands of modern, multi-domain operations. With an emphasis on forecasting—anticipating how military force might resolve emerging crises—this comprehensive resource bridges the gap between theoretical understanding and real-world application. Michael W. Fowler guides planners in articulating their intelligence needs and offers analysts a systematic approach to meeting them, from the formulation of courses of action to the development of robust collection plans. Through a focused exploration of operational-level research methods, Planning, Intelligence, and the Art of War equips practitioners with the analytical tools necessary to evaluate adversary capabilities, forecast behaviors, and support decision-making across. With practical examples applicable to air, maritime, space, cyber, and special operations domains, this book is structured to address the learning curve associated with transitioning to higher levels of command. Tailored for those navigating the complexity of joint task forces and combatant commands, Planning, Intelligence, and the Art of War: Offers a step-by-step approach to creating intelligence forecasts at the operational level Organizes operational analysis around a phased model of conflict escalation for clarity and coherence Features a unique framework for analyzing partner nation behavior and military cooperation Provides specific techniques for aligning intelligence products with the needs of joint force commanders Addresses the critical challenge of building collection plans tied to priority intelligence requirements Drawing from decades of operational lessons learned, Planning, Intelligence, and the Art of War: Research Methods to Support Military Operations is essential reading for military officers, analysts, and planners operating at joint or component command levels. It supports coursework in military and strategic studies, intelligence analysis, and security studies at both undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable tool for professional military education programs and wargame designers seeking to integrate realistic intelligence scenarios into operational simulations.

List of Frequently Used Acronyms xi About the Author xv PART I: THINKING LIKE A MILITARY OPERATIONAL ANALYST 1 Chapter 1: Introduction to Military Intelligence and Planning 3 Chapter 2: Intelligence: The Process at the Operational Level of War 19 Chapter 3: Framing Military Problems: Selecting an Analytical Scheme 43 Chapter 4: Making the Analysis Customer-centric 57 PART II: OPERATIONAL FORECASTING 73 Chapter 5: Developing Rough Courses of Action 75 Chapter 6: Considering Security Partners 95 Chapter 7: Forecasting Detailed Courses of Action 117 PART III: DEVELOPING DETAILED OPERATIONAL COURSES OF ACTION 133 Chapter 8: A Framework for Estimating Feasibility and Viability 135 Chapter 9: Information Warfare: Space, Cyber, and Information Operations Capabilities 151 Chapter 10: Unconventional Forces 175 Chapter 11: Area Denial Capabilities 193 Chapter 12: Anti-access Capabilities 217 Chapter 13: Securing Sea Lanes 245 Chapter 14: Seizing Territory and the Close Fight 271 PART IV: DETECTION 291 Chapter 15: Prioritized Intelligence Requirements: Indicators and Decisions 293 Chapter 16: Collection Planning: What Is Knowable? 305 Chapter 17: Conclusion: Synchronizing Intelligence and Planning 327 Bibliography 337 Web Resources 345 Index 347