Decision Analysis for Management Judgment 5/e +作者：Goodwin +年份：2014 年5 版 +ISBN：9781118740736 +書號：MB0604P +規格：平裝/單色 +頁數：496 +出版商：John Wiley Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field. 目錄 Chapter 1 Introduction Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART Chapter 5 Introduction to probability Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems Chapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty Chapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis Chapter 18 Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions Suggested answers to selected questions